Dr. Sumaya jan

This study examined the relationship between tourism demand and economic growth in India from 1990 to 2019 using VECM and ARDL models to capture long- and short-run dynamics. Structural breaks in 1994 and 2014, detected via Zivot–Andrews and Bai– Perron tests, account for policy shifts, including post-liberalization adjustments and the Make in India initiative. VECM results reveal multiple long-run cointegrating relationships among tourist arrivals (TA), GDP, FDI, and HDI, with rapid convergence to equilibrium. In the short run, FDI and HDI significantly affect tourism demand, while GDP shows a limited immediate impact. ARDL results confirm HDI as the strongest long-term determinant, alongside positive contributions from GDP and FDI. Structural break dummies indicate that policy and institutional reforms temporarily influenced tourism flows. Overall, findings support a development-led tourism perspective, emphasizing human capital, income growth, strategic FDI, and reforms as drivers of sustainable tourism expansion in India.

This study examines the impact of tourism demand and financial development on economic growth in five Western Balkan countries over the period 2000–2024. International tourist arrivals are used as a proxy for tourism demand, while domestic credit to the private sector represents financial development. Gross capital formation and labour force participation are included as control variables. To investigate the short-run and long-run relationships among the variables, the study employs a panel econometric framework comprising cross-sectional dependence tests, first- and second-generation panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests, and the Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) estimator. The Mean Group (MG) and Dynamic Fixed Effects (DFE) estimators are also estimated, while the Hausman specification test is used to select the preferred estimator. This study contributes to the tourism–finance–growth literature by providing updated panel evidence for five Western Balkan countries and by simultaneously examining tourism demand and financial development within a comprehensive PMG-ARDL framework. The results reveal significant cross-sectional dependence and confirm the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The Hausman test supports the PMG estimator. The PMG-ARDL results indicate that tourism demand, financial development, gross capital formation, and labour force participation positively and significantly influence economic growth. Furthermore, the error-correction term is negative and significant, indicating that approximately 19.1% of short-run disequilibrium adjusts toward long-run equilibrium annually. The findings support the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis and highlight the importance of tourism development and financial sector expansion in promoting sustainable economic growth in the Western Balkan countries. JEL Classification: O40; Z32

This study examines the relationship between sustainable business practices and trade competitiveness in India over the period 1995–2024 using the Autoregressives Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to examine both long-run and short-run dynamics. In the empirical analysis, renewable energy consumption (REC) is used as a proxy for an important environmental dimension of sustainable business practices, while exports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP (EXGS) are used as a proxy for trade competitiveness, reflecting export performance and trade intensity. Structural breaks in 2004 and 2011, identified through the Bai–Perron test and incorporated into the ARDL model, account for major policy reforms and economic transitions associated with changes in India’s trade performance. The ARDL bounds test provides evidence of a long-run relationship among EXGS, REC, trade openness (TOP), and gross capital formation (GCF). The long-run results indicate that renewable energy consumption, trade openness, and gross capital formation are positively and statistically significantly associated with EXGS, used as a proxy for trade competitiveness, with renewable energy consumption showing the largest estimated positive relationship with export performance. The short-run estimates also reveal positive and statistically significant relationships between changes in the explanatory variables and EXGS, while the highly significant and negative error-correction term confirms the presence of an adjustment mechanism toward the long-run equilibrium. Overall, the findings indicate that renewable energy consumption, representing one environmental dimension of sustainable business practices, together with trade openness and productive investment, is positively associated with India’s export performance and trade competitiveness as proxied by EXGS. The results provide useful evidence for policies that support renewable energy adoption, productive investment, and international market integration in the pursuit of sustainable economic growth.

This study investigated the tourism–economic growth nexus in the United Arab Emirates from 1995 to 2023 using VECM and ARDL models to capture long- and short-run dynamics. Structural breaks in 2008, 2015, and 2020, identified through Zivot–Andrews and Bai–Perron tests, account for major economic transitions associated with the global financial crisis, oil-market adjustment, and the COVID-19 shock. VECM results reveal three long-run cointegrating relationships among economic growth, real tourism receipts, gross capital formation, FDI, and oil rents, with heterogeneous adjustment toward equilibrium. ARDL results confirm a long-run relationship, with tourism receipts, gross capital formation, FDI, and oil rents positively associated with economic growth. Short-run results similarly indicate positive associations across these determinants. However, Granger causality results show that economic growth predicts real tourism receipts, while tourism receipts do not significantly predict economic growth, indicating a growth-led tourism perspective rather than tourism-led predictive causality. Structural-break interventions further demonstrate the importance of major economic shocks in shaping the tourism–growth relationship. The study contributes by integrating VECM, ARDL, Granger causality, and structural-break analysis within a resource-rich and rapidly diversifying Gulf economy. Overall, the findings highlight tourism, investment, FDI, and diversification as interconnected components of sustainable economic growth in the UAE.